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NEWS​​
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The Direct to Consumer opportunity in the UK

10/17/2023

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Ecommerce picture
Around a 10-12 min read
In this article we will be taking a deep dive into the Direct to Consumer (DTC, or sometimes D2C) sales channel, one of the fastest growing sales channels in the UK and estimated to now deliver 2.4% of all UK retail sales.

What we’ll cover in this article
  • How big is the DTC channel in the UK?
  • What are the benefits of growing DTC (beyond the sales!)?
  • Inspiration from some leading Brands – in Food as well as Non-Food

Introduction

Although most brands now have some sort of DTC offering, commitment to the channel varies widely and it is seen by many brands as a niche, low priority channel.  It can therefore sometimes be used only to skim a low level of sales from existing website traffic, rather than benefitting from strategic investment and the full focus of the Leadership team.

There are, of course, valid concerns about growing a channel that could be seen as competitive or dilutive to more traditional retailer channels.  Real success in DTC requires a fully integrated strategy and buy-in across the organisation (we will deal with these and other issues in the next article), but there are also many reasons for making DTC a key part of your brand strategy, not least the proven opportunity to drive significant, incremental and margin enhancing sales.

In this article we provide an overview of the DTC channel in the UK, as well as case studies from some leading brands which will we hope will give food for thought about just how big your DTC offering could be, and how the channel fits into the rest of your commercial strategy.

DTC Definition : The Direct to Consumer (DTC) sales channel is defined as when Manufacturers / Brand Owners bypass the traditional method of selling via wholesalers, retailers and/or other third parties and become the Seller themselves, building a new relationship and trading direct with the end consumer. ​
Most sales in this channel are made by large, existing brands eg Apple, Levis or Clinique, who sell DTC simultaneous to also selling through traditional retailers, but it also increasingly includes food and drink brands as well as start-up brands (for whom DTC is their only sales channel) and brands with subscription models.

ARE YOU DOING ENOUGH TO GROW YOUR BRAND IN THE DTC CHANNEL?

Size of the Opportunity (UK)

By definition much of this channel remains ‘below the radar’ as sales are not captured by traditional EPOS reporting (eg Nielsen, GFK), but the channel has scaled substantially over recent years. 

In 2019 (before Covid) Barclays estimated the channel accounted for 8.0% of all Online sales, which works through as 1.5% of all retail sales.  Even with a modest assumption that DTC has increased share of total online by 1 basis point to 9.0%, sales would have almost doubled to £10.9BN by 2023 = 2.4% of all retail sales, and continuing at this rate the DTC channel could reach ~£12.7BN within 2 years – growth of a further 17%. 
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Whilst regular data sources do not include the channel, the data above demonstrates significant growth opportunities in an otherwise quite challenging economic environment.  And as we can see below, a variety of brands are already substantially outperforming in this channel - so instead of asking ‘are we doing enough in DTC’ perhaps the question may be better framed as ‘how big do we want DTC to be?’ ​

Benefits of growing DTC

As well as the opportunity to drive incremental sales at higher than average margin, DTC offers a range of strategic benefits, many of which can be applied to optimise the business and unlock future growth, and which make a compelling argument for increased focus on DTC as part of a wider brand strategy.

These can include:
  • Direct Customer relationships which can be nurtured to build lifetime value and brand equity
  • Get to market faster, including testing and learning with a fast feedback loop
  • Rich first-party Customer data and insights, which can be used to improve targeting & NPD
  • Greater level of stock control
  • More predictable / controllable revenue streams

​Clearly higher priced items & brands lend themselves to this channel, with DTC playing a particularly key role in the following categories : Consumer Electronics, Fashion, Apparel & Luxury Goods.  However, the Food category has an online penetration of 31% so also presents significant opportunities, and not only via the Subscriptions route. 

Brand case studies : Nike, Sonos, Nestle & more

So how big can DTC be?  In essence the answer depends in great part upon your vision.  20 years ago no one probably would have believed that 50% of Nike’s revenue could come from DTC, but at this point the question is more when, rather than if, this is going to happen.

For brands which are not yet #1 or #2 in their category DTC can also be a great way to build scale, punch above their weight and curate a powerful connection with their customer base which can provide the foundation for greater growth in the future.

​Before we dive into our branded examples it is worth noting that there is no ‘one size fits all’ strategy that can be applied to this channel, and each brand needs to use insights on their Customer to develop the right strategy for them (more on this later in the series too), but hopefully the examples which follow will give some inspiration on what may be possible and start some conversations about what your brand can do…

​Nike

​Nike is rightly known as one of the most successful pioneers in the DTC space, growing sales from $2.5 billion in 2010 to $16.4 billion in 2021.   This equates to an increase from 15% total brand revenue in 2010 to 39% in 2021, and the target is to reach 50% this year.
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Image Credit : Nike.com
Growth of the DTC channel has been a central part of Nike’s strategy for years, underpinned by heavy investment and is summarised well by its ‘Consumer Direct Offense’ strategy, launched in 2017.  This ‘Triple Double’ strategy was developed to drive growth by supercharging three core areas of the business:-
  • 2X Innovation: To double the cadence and impact of innovation, the Company will lead with more distinct platforms and scale innovation faster, will edit-to-amplify to give consumers better choices and will create new aesthetics spanning both sport and style;
  • 2X Speed: To double speed to market by reducing the average product creation timeline by over 50 percent through investments in end-to-end digital capabilities to serve consumers faster; and
  • 2X Direct: To double direct connections with consumers and shape the future of retail led by Nike.com and all new owned and partnered NIKE Consumer Experiences.
​The consumer today expects a premium experience, with innovative product and services delivered faster and more personally.  Fueled by a transformation of our business, we are attacking growth opportunities through innovation, speed and digital to accelerate long-term, sustainable and profitable growth.
​Mark Parker, Chairman, President and CEO of NIKE, Inc. 2017
As DTC sales have grown and investment has increased, the brand has stopped selling via many traditional partners including Macy’s, Urban Outfitters and even Amazon, despite Nike products regularly appearing on the top 200 most searched keywords on the platform.
​
Nike has also invested heavily in data analytics to build capability and accelerate its growth, including acquisition of 3 companies Celect (predictive analytics), Zodiac (demand sensing), and Datalogue (machine learning).  These acquisitions enable Nike to better personalise recommendations, create new products and services, such as the Nike Training Club, and ultimately drive increased Customer lifetime value.
I truly believe that NIKE is just scratching the surface of what's possible. With our breadth and depth, no one has the advantage in this space that NIKE has to directly connect with consumers.
​Nike CEO John Donahoe, 2020, speaking about the Nike Commerce App

Sonos

Another great example, this time in the Consumer Electronics category, is Sonos, which doubled DTC as % of total revenue from 12% in 2018 to 23% in 2022, and managed to do this whilst growing other channels and total revenue at the same time.

Triggered, but not started by the Covid Pandemic, Sonos D2C sales exploded by +67% in the last quarter of 2020 as a digital transformation plan which the company had been working on for 2 years was rapidly accelerated out of necessity due to the pandemic.  Those sales have stuck, though, as Sonos tapped into a underlying and scalable customer need:
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What we saw as people's willingness to shop online for pretty experiential products, which I would consider Sonos - you know, it has a certain look and aesthetic that you need to know works in your home. It is a sound product, you [need to] know how it sounds and how that experience is - they're much more willing to consider purchases like that online than they would have beforehand where maybe they wanted to talk to somebody in person.
​So what we're really focused on now is how do we recreate that physical experience or that consultative sales experience as best as we can.

Sonos VP and General Manager, Zach Kramer, 2020

Nestle

In FMCG, Nestle is targeting a doubling of its e-commerce sales from 13% in 2020 [~$11.8BN] to 25% by 2025, again unlocked by technological & marketing investments, and driven by markets including Europe, the United States & China.  The company also notes that, so far, ecommerce investments have not been dilutive to the business.

Building on success of Nespresso coffee pods and Purina PetCare, Nestle has stated its investment will drive a tripling of valuable first-party data points – data collected directly from consumers, to around 600 million.  This data will be used to identify areas where business can be optimised by reducing out of stocks or where sales can be boosted, as well as feeding into other existing CRM & product development programmes.
​In a world where there is no rule book to follow, a lot of learning has been done already and we are looking forward to the next phase
​Nestle CEO, Mark Schneider, 2021
Doubling of Nestle’s e-commerce sales would put annual online sales in the region of ~$25BN and way outperform the average % Online sales of food in most, if not all markets – for example even a highly penetrated market like the UK only has an Online % share of Food of 10.4%.

Other Examples

Diageo also have ambitious growth plans.  Currently ecommerce sales account for around 5% of  global business, driven by a combination of platforms & channels, notably via sales on Amazon, Drizly in the US and Tmall in China, but D2C also forms part of this number and is a key area for future investment.

To round off our collection of brands, two other examples worth mentioning are L’Oreal : now driving 28% of their consolidated sales via ecommerce (which includes DTC) and growing by 9%; and Levi’s who now drive 37% of sales via the DTC channel (30% from owned Stores and 7% via ecommerce).
Alcohol has typically been underpenetrated [online].  We have introduced nine new direct-to-consumer platforms around the world. [DTC]  is relatively small for Diageo, but we expect it to grow fast and it will become a more important piece of our business
Diageo Chief Executive, Ivan Menezes, 2021

Key Takeouts:  So What?

  1. DTC already accounts for 2.4% of all retail sales in the UK and is forecast to continue to grow its share.
  2. There are many examples of brands who have built a successful DTC proposition, but performance at brand level varies significantly in each category depending on strategy and execution, with some brands investing heavily to grow, whilst others are increasingly being left behind.
  3. At the least ambitious end of spectrum DTC can deliver material sales which are margin enhancing, and at most ambitious can deliver a strong level of competitive advantage and change the very trajectory of brands in the marketplace.
  4. Beyond incremental sales, developing and scaling a strong DTC offer also unlocks many other benefits including building brand equity & access to a rich first-party dataset on your Shoppers & their shopping habits which can be used to unlock further growth in the future
  5. Although the opportunity varies by category, our view is that targeting at least 5% of your annual sales to come from D2C in the next 2-3 years should not be an unreasonable goal for many brands… and this could potentially be far exceeded in some categories / by some brands
​
​In short DTC has the potential to deliver significant competitive advantage for your brand, become a key part of your brand strategy and help to build a platform for sustained future growth.

Sources: 
  • Barclays ‘Going Direct’ report, 2019.  https://www.barclayscorporate.com/content/dam/barclayscorporate-com/documents/insights/industry-expertise/MTL-digital-report.pdf
  • Optima Retail modelling based on latest ONS and other data
  • ONS Internet sales as a % of total Retail sales 2007 to 2022 https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j4mc/drsi
  • BRC KPMG Monthly Retail Sales report, May 2020
  • Fabric, Nike E-Commerce: How Nike’s D2C Strategy Hits 50% Digital Penetration https://fabric.inc/blog/commerce/nike-ecommerce-strategy
  • BCG, Even Big Brands Need a Direct-to-Consumer Strategy https://www.bcg.com/publications/2021/direct-to-consumer-strategy-business-benefits
  • Nike.com   Nike accelerating a consumer-led transformation to ignite its next phase of long-term growth https://investors.nike.com/investors/news-events-and-reports/investor-news/investor-news-details/2017/NIKE-INC-IS-ACCELERATING-A-CONSUMER-LED-TRANSFORMATION-TO-IGNITE-ITS-NEXT-PHASE-OF-LONG-TERM-GROWTH/default.aspx
  • Rev.com  Nike Inc. NKE Q1 FY21 Earnings Call Transcript  https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/nike-inc-nke-q1-fy21-earnings-call-transcript
  • Sonos Investor Presentation, August 2023. https://investors.sonos.com/investor-resources/default.aspx
  • Bundl, 10 inspiring corporate D2C pivot examples and how they’re reshaping retail.   https://www.bundl.com/articles/examples-corporate-d2c-pivot-examples-reshaping-retail
  • Diginomica, Retail’s D2C pivot - Sonos sounds the right note on meeting consumer needs with Salesforce https://diginomica.com/retails-d2c-pivot-sonos-sounds-right-note-meeting-consumer-needs-salesforce
  • Reuters, 2021 Nestle aims to nearly double sales via e-commerce by 2025  https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/nestle-aims-generate-quarter-total-sales-e-commerce-by-2025-2021-11-17/
  • Reuters (NIQ) 2023 Online's share of UK grocery market dips as heat pushes shoppers to stores. https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/onlines-share-uk-grocery-market-dips-heat-pushes-shoppers-stores-2023-06-27/
  • Drinks International, 2021, Diageo sees a strong future for direct-to-consumer sales https://drinksint.com/news/fullstory.php/aid/9676/Diageo_sees_a_strong_future_for_direct-to-consumer_sales.html#:~:text=Diageo%20expects%20direct%2Dto%2Dconsumer,the%20year%20to%20June%2030
  • L’Oreal 2022 Annual Report https://www.loreal-finance.com/en/annual-report-2022/financial-performance/#sales
  • Internet Retailing 2022, More than a third of Levi’s sales now direct-to-consumer https://internetretailing.net/more-than-a-third-of-levis-sales-now-direct-to-consumer/#:~:text=More%20than%20a%20third%20(37,23%25%20increase%20in%20store%20numbers.
  • Shop now / Ecommerce photograph - pexels-nataliya-vaitkevich-6214471.jpeg
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